Jordan Roy-Byrne – Macroeconomic And Precious Metals Outlook For The Medium-Term
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, shares his technical and macroeconomic outlook for general equities, gold, silver, and the precious metals stocks for the medium term. The discussion starts off looking at how much longer the precious metals sector may need to consolidate, in tandem with US general equities markets continuing to get a bid, before those trends reverse. Things really continue to depend on when and how severe the recession becomes more apparent, when the Fed is forced to react, and when gold can break out to a new high.
The conversation then turns to why Jordan is far more bullish on gold than silver initially, and also gold over the rest of the commodities for the medium-term, especially in lieu of a worsening recession to come. We wrap up getting Jordan’s rationale for why he is most interested in well-capitalized growth-oriented gold producers. Producers will get the initial capital inflows when the trend changes and sentiment improves, and they have proven metal in the ground to respond to price appreciation paired with incoming revenues to weather any prolonged weakness down the road.
.
$100 from ALL TIME HIGH……………………… LONG TERM GOLD IS SOLID………..
J the Long……… 🙂
Wonder what the AVERAGE age is of a listener at Kitco…. … since kitco news is off gold….?
and thanks for posting Sinn…..
Saw Gary Savage at Sinn’s sight…. Gary indicated…. bottom according to 38%Fib retrace was $1907…
subject to the dollar….
Good question OOTB, about the average age of the listeners over at Kitco, with their more Crypto-focused content these days. I’m guessing it just gets more traction than the coverage on hard assets, but I agree with Jordan that it could be an interesting contrarian signal for the gold/silver space. It’s also odd since Kitco is a both a buyer and seller of physical bullion to downgrade the gold/silver coverage quite a bit, in favor of the cryptos. Wild times in these markets.
Largest Gold Publisher Completely Ignores Gold for Crypto
By Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA • The Daily Gold – June 05, 2023
“Kitco News, the largest publisher of gold news and analysis, should change its name to Crypto News because crypto is its new focus and Gold has taken a major backseat. Gold is only 5.5% from an all-time high while Bitcoin is 65% from its all-time high…”
https://thedailygold.com/video-largest-gold-publisher-completely-ignores-gold-for-crypto/
5% get it………. 65% stupid sheeple……….. 🙂
To pause or not to pause? Fed officials divided ahead of critical June meeting
Jennifer Schonberger – Yahoo Finance – Thu, June 8, 2023
“Federal Reserve officials are divided on whether to raise interest rates at the central bank’s policy meeting next week. With inflation picking up in April and the job market showing strength, a handful of members think the Fed should continue to raise rates to quell demand and bring down inflation.”
“Some members, on the other hand, have argued for a pause to give the Fed the opportunity to take a step back and assess the economic impact of the central bank’s 10 rate hikes, tightening credit conditions and signs that inflation is slowing.”
“Markets are pricing in a 70% chance of a pause at the June meeting based on CME Fed Funds Futures, as of 9:40 am ET Thursday morning.”
On the contrary, I just went all in on GDX and SILJ. I think they move big next week on a pause. Might sell half on a pop.
+2
Excellent interview and synopsis. Thanks.
Much appreciated. Yes, Jordan was on-point.
FREAKY FRIDAY……………………………. AGAIN…………………..
DOJ……………….. lol……………
Mexico…………..Joins BRICs…………
While Biden fiddles Washington burns, when The BRICS announce a gold backed currency you can expect to see American Dollars flooding back home and hyperinflation in The U.S. The foreign military bases will be closed because they won’t be able to afford them. The future of American industry will be assured and doomed by the application of a distinctly modern principle decreased consumption. The stock market will register this tremendous change. Down, down, down………….. DT
With 750 military bases………. USCORPORATION of Theft is over extended…. and the sheeple should have been awake to the fact that the US is a CORPORATION ran by THUGS……
Jerry:
The sheeple are too wrapped up in their “catch phrases” to notice what is happening, LIKE, (why do they keep using the like word) Basically, I want to spend “QUALITY TIME” living in “MY FOREVER HOME” with the “CENTER ISLAND” and “GRANITE COUNTER TOPS” and “STAINLESS-STEEL” appliances, that I can’t afford. Reality is not a catch phrase in their vocabulary or lifestyle. LOL! DT 😉
Good one……… Sheeple still think they are voting for leadership….
Obama, was going to cure everything…. lol….
Santa Cruz has filed its missing financial reports and submitted them, they expect that the cease trade order will be lifted today after the market close and trading will resume early next week. Santa Clause is coming to Town! DT LOL!
Took less than 5 minutes to go from green to red.
Should have known that during a collapse of the dollar to buy Netflix instead of Gold.
I tried buying SIL on the TO board to get away from the penny stock BS and I’m getting the same moves… go figure… summer doldrums are early so a bounce out mid summer might be in order… oversold but can go further because it’s a commodity stock.
Agreed Dan – We are not even to summer yet for 2 more weeks, but it feels like we are already well into the thick of the Summer Doldrums, so I guess they came early this year in the “Sell in May and go away” zone…
Anecdotally, most of the company management and IR teams we speak with barely feel like marketing or putting out news again (as it becomes a liquidity event… even it if is good news fundamentally). Most investors, fund managers, and newsletter writers we speak with are in a “wait and see mode” still expecting a few more weeks to a few more months of slow to corrective action in the sector. Looking at a number of platforms chat boards is also pretty dismal with people whining and complaining and finger pointing. This too shall pass, but it is still surprising how bad sentiment is considering where the metals pricing is on a historically solid basis.
As the famous Aurthur movie quote goes “I wish I had a dime for every dime I have…” If I suddenly did, I’d plow most of it into picking up oversold washed out resource stocks in a few different commodities for the long game. Alas, I’ve added some over the last month or so, and only have 2% drypowder left, which I’m saving for any further weakness. Maybe I’ll start up a paper route to make a little extra cheddar to throw at this sector… Haha!
Ever Upward!
That’s more evidence of a low this summer, ownership is gun shy to put out news because of the negative reaction inevitable to follow.
I’m doing a bottle run on Monday, if yer close by I’ll take yours in too for a small fee…
Haha! Nice… I’m going to also check the couch cushions for some spare change… 🤑
I’ll go to the beach with metal detector and pick up coins left by careless Australians.
Schwab just did a -15% hit on Golden Lake while OTC shows nothing. No news.
In other trading news, IBKR shows an on-going -$400 to -$600 Cad daily decline in Santacruz despite trading being halted and no volume and no change in daily price. The only impact is an incorrect reflection of “daily account value”.
I asked about it last week and no response, so I assume it is intentional.
Added: OTC now showing over -20% on Golden Lake. Apparently some form of insider trading. Last news was I-80 doing a joint project to do Drone Survey.
I’m just throwing this out there for feedback, can an exchange go out of business?
My question is not based on price alone but the sketchy financings that rob $$$$$ from “investors” as soon as the warrants are tradeable.
Thinnest trading in the last 5 years, time of death, April last year, where is the confidence in this index going to come from?
Last month’s total volume was the lowest since July 2003 and the sector happens to be at a cyclically similar place (but better) right now. The dollar value of last month’s volume was much less than in July 2003. In fact, it was just slightly over half the value and therefore probably the lowest $volume on record. Adjusted for inflation we are easily and by far at the lowest monthly $volumes on record.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&id=t3222288597c&a=1227129438&r=1686342310097&cmd=print
Wow… I don’t know what else to say, haha!;-/
The TSXV was born of the defunct Vancouver Stock Exchange which Forbes called “the scam capital of the world” so plenty of cynicism is warranted based on that alone and luckily I’ve got plenty to spare and spread around.
https://www.vancouverpolicemuseum.ca/post/the-vancouver-stock-exchange-a-legacy-of-fraud-and-money-laundering-part-i
That’s an interesting question Dan. I know we’ve seen crypto exchange failures, and think off the top of my head we’ve even seen other stock exchanges fail in the past in some countries, but don’t know if we’ve seen US or Canadian exchanges fail in recent memory. I guess all the companies would need to be migrated over to other exchanges in that kind of an event (??)
Don’t know…. Maybe someone else knows if there is a precedent of this happening before and what happened to all the stock holders and companies on those exchanges.
You might be right as I researched what would happen if Schwab tanked due to their investments in Silicon Valley. The general conclusion was that investors money is protected as it is against Regulation to commingle funds. Investors would be transferred to another brokerage firm. Of course why would an exchange be investing its own funds to fail in the first place. Therefore it may be more a question if the Exchange was a total fraud.
Might raise the additional question whether the US Government was liable for allowing a fraud to do business for years and years.
I know they trade off of the nebulous Alpha Index whatever that is.
https://www.tsx.com/resource/en/1190/overview-of-tsx-alpha-exchange-2016-01-27-en.pdf
“TSX Alpha Exchange (TSXA) is designed to be an attractive destination for active retail and institutional orders of securities listed on
Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange, to provide superior domestic execution for active natural order flow and an attractive
trading environment for liquidity providers willing to commit to minimum order sizes. ”
In other words, they will sell you shares if there isn’t enough for sale on the TSX and TSX.v to keep the price stable so don’t ever believe the bid and ask volumes on the Canadian boards. If they supply shares until the end of day then they are effectively shorting shares to the brokerage and covering after hours, often a trade placed with this process will not even show up on the trading volume then conveniently approaches a favourable end of day price where they pay less for a stock and make a profit on a sale that doesn’t appear on your platform…. hmmm… I may be confused here…
Larry Williams on stocks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmqWrOxRg7g
SLV:GLD has completely filled its May 11th gap:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p37143214946&a=1418374030
Priced in dollars instead of GLD, SLV needs to rise another 4+ percent to fill its gap.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p15282736085&a=1275764628
We See Dolly Varden (DV) as a Silver Bank with Ounces in the Ground Like Silver in a Vault
The Prospector News – May 2, 2023
“Prospector News Publisher Michael Fox chats with Dolly Varden Silver CEO Shawn Khunkuhun at the Current Trends in Mining Finance put on by the New York Chapter of the SME. The goal at Dolly Varden according to Shawn is to create exponential growth for shareholders on 2 fronts. Drill up the project in order to increase the minable reserves in the ground; and to have the value of the reserves increase as the Silver price rises.”
“The company has acquired an enviable land package in BC’s golden Triangle and area known for its elephant sized deposits. The 2022 drill program was a huge success and 2023 has an aggressive fully funded drill program planned.”
Gold looks bad versus silver and that’s a good thing for the sector…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=22&id=p53418559509&a=1420256373
Ex, having a banking background what do you think will happen If we get hyperinflation, will the Banks allow people to pay off their mortgages and loan debt with hyper-inflated currency. DT
In a hyperinflationary scenario, then those with fixed rate loans would actually do quite well as they’d likely have a wage increase to keep up with inflating prices, but would still have the same fixed pile of debt, likely at a lower rate of interest than inflation. It would be those trying to take out new loans or refinance that would be in a tough predicament.
Hi Ex, I think you misunderstood my question. If we get hyperinflation which could be in the hundreds of % in one year ( in Weimar Germany inflation raged from 1921-23 and culminated at the end of 1923 at 29,500%) and you wanted to pay off your mortgage and you went to the bank with hyper-inflated money and you had provisions that allowed you to pay off your mortgage, which most borrowers have would the Banks allow you to use that money to pay it off. DT
DT – They’d have to allow you to pay off the debt (regardless of monetary conditions) as a contract is a contract.
It would be the contrast and converse of people that were stuck in 5%-7% loans (that couldn’t refinance due to personal hardships at work) when the Fed took rates down to near zero (which had the banks laughing all the way to their own bank).
A loan contract is a contract no matter how the external factors may change during the duration.
Also I don’t believe the powers that be are going to allow a hyperinflationary event going uo hundreds of a percent in one year like Weimar Germany, so it’s not something that keeps me up at night.
When people were really worried about hyperinflation after the Great Financial Crisis, there were a few books that advocated for people hanging out and paying the minimum on low fixed interest rate mortgages and then taking the extra money they would have applied to their mortgages and investing it in the anticipated rocketing yields which would have dramatically outpaced their mortgage interst, making the delta between the two.
Of course, in hindsight that obviously never happened and we never saw high runaway inflation or yields blow out to the upside. The opposite actually happened, where we saw rates plummet lower to 40 year lows by 2020.
Regardless that same playbook could be used in a hyperinflationary scenario, of hiding out in low interest fixed rate mortgages. Still, it doesn’t seem likely at this point that we are going to see Weimar or Zimbabwe levels of hyperinflation.
Hi Ex, it doesn’t keep me up at night, I am not in a predicament. As far as the banks are concerned a contract is not always something that is obeyed, we see that all the time just look at what The Federal Reserve has been doing for the last 50 years they make up the rules as they go along. Although they had a contract as to their mandate that contract has meant nothing for as I say the last 50 years.
In Weimar Germany the inflation rate went up 29,500% in one-year 1923, it could easily go up 300-500% in one year here if we get hyperinflation. As far as the banking powers being able to stave off a hyperinflationary event just look at their track record of only printing money and lowering interest rates and never being ahead of the curve. Now that they are pretending to play hardball it is too little too late. Anyone with a modicum amount of intelligence knows that. DT
It’s very very rare that a mortgage contract is not honored with an individual. Your question was if banks would honor the payoff of their loans in a hyperinflationary scenario, and the answer is yes. They are required to do so regardless of the backdrop of inflation going up or down.
That is much different than what the Fed is doing over the last 50 years, so that is a whole different can of worms…. Yes, agreed that them pretending to play hardball now is too little too late, and ironic since they were the ones the created the problem in the first place, through excessive money printing. Brrrrr….
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/8/3/295940-1596466097238851_origin.jpg
Hi Ex, oddly enough if you read about what happened to mortgages in Weimar Germany, they tied the price of mortgages to the gold price so if the price of gold doubled so did your mortgage. That was a way of protecting their banks, but it shows you how bankers view gold when they are in trouble and the printing presses are decommissioned, ultimately of course it is the consumer who is on the hook. The central banks have now been furiously buying gold. DT
That is interesting DT, and yes, the central banksters know full well the value of gold, and hence they are still regularly buying gold to add it to their balance sheets (except in Canada). These central banks are not buying Shiba Inu coins or Dogecoins to add to their balance sheets… that’s for sure. 😉
I’m a miner. Every day new money out of the ground. No recirculate money. Only sell if I half to for fuel.
Work 7 days a week. Life is good.
In 2017 Quinton Hennigh talked about all the holes on Novo’s Nullagine property where people were finding and digging up nuggets with their metal detectors.
Bob Moriarty talked about that too in the book he wrote about Novo Resources. In the TV show called Aussie Gold Hunters most of them have a government license and they use metal detectors, but the finds are very miniscule compared to what was mentioned in Bob M’s book, however I find Bob M to be a very credible and honest person. DT
Gold Short & Medium Term Outlook
Jordan Roy-Byrne – The Daily Gold – June 5, 2023
“In this interview, Robert Sinn, @GoldfingerCapital provides a short-term and medium term outlook for Gold. We discuss both the current bullish and bearish drivers and the outlook for the second half of the year.”
0:00 Intro
0:35 Gold Holding up
1:57 Robert Thoughts
6:45 Rate Cut Expectations
8:45 Before Market Senses Shift
12:30 Tight Policy Impact
14:30 June Outlook
17:40 Intricacies of Sentiment
19:15 Kitco Abandons Gold
23:30 Stock Market & Economy
28:00 When Stock Market Peaks
https://youtu.be/tMSl2x0bBi4